Will this latest batch of weapons headed to Ukraine finally win the peace? While this is possible, do we fully understand what we are giving up to do so? As history shows, no matter how advanced a weapon is, someone will eventually figure out a way to counter it.
There are a host of reasons, backed by historical examples, why sending more and more advanced weapons into Ukraine will not be a panacea. In fact, sending them might boomerang against the U.S. at some point. This is an argument for caution, as it looks like the West is willing to send more of its most sophisticated equipment into Ukraine to “win the peace.”
Among those who support such an increase are Iraq War architect Condoleezza Rice and former Bush and Obama Defense Secretary Robert Gates. In a recent Washington Post op-ed, the pair wrote, “Time is Not on Ukraine’s side” and Ukraine is losing its war with Russia. For Americans, it is time to act “with a sense of urgency.”
There is enormous pressure to give Ukraine more advanced weapons that, until now, the Biden administration has been unwilling to send. Given the course of history, it would be foolish not to acknowledge that opening a pipeline of weapons — particularly our best — invites a number of risks and realities. Plus, so many other factors, like enemy adaptability, can outweigh the advantage of superior technology.
We should be aware of the lessons. While they are not analogous, recent U.S. military combat experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan should be informative.
